2013 Big Board

Happy Draft Day everyone!  This is, perhaps, my favorite day of the year, especially when the Suns have a top 5 pick AND the desire to keep said pick.  Let me first mention that this draft blog comes to you after a failed attempt on my part at analytics.  I put a lot of time and resources into statistically predicting which prospects are going to end up as the cream of the crop, and my predictions came out unthinkably bad.  Better luck next year, I suppose. 

Because of this failed attempt, this year my big board is based solely on my gut (you know, the conglomeration of bits of information gathered from news articles, podcasts, mock drafts, videos and unspoken biases all rolled into my subconscious thought), which is cool because this is how NBA teams based their draft rankings for 25-plus years until the Spurs started finding Hall of Famers in the late second round.  Seriously though, do we really think that RC Buford is just really good at his job?  I would be more willing to believe that Buford has some sort of stat geek/time traveler/fortune teller/minion chained in his basement that is feeding him answers.  Whatever it is, I will find the answer.  Now, without further adieu…my big board:

1: Nerlens Noel (Draft Express Mock: 1 Chad Ford Mock 7.0: 1)

2: Victor Oladipo (DX: 5 ESPN: 2)

These two are definitely my favorite players in this draft.  Oladipo is probably my favorite, but I’m too worried the Noel will become a defensive wizard in the NBA.  Plus, as one of the youngest players in this draft, I can’t rule out the possibility of Noel developing an offensive game given a few years.  Plus-plus, Noel’s knee injury just increases the 2014 ping pong balls.  ANDREW WIGGINS 2014!!!!

3: Ben McLemore (DX: 2 ESPN: 4)

4: Cody Zeller (DX: 11 ESPN: 11)

Same story for these two.  I like Cody Zeller more than McLemore, but that whole potential argument is swaying my gut to go with McLemore over Zeller.  Also, if Zeller is picked, I want him to play alongside Gortat, not in his place.  Zeller is too small (standing reach, not height) to play center against the giants in the NBA. 

5: Otto Porter (DX: 3 ESPN: 3)

6: CJ McCollum (DX: 7 ESPN: 7)

7: Anthony Bennett (DX: 8 ESPN: 8)

I really like McCollum.  I think he’s going to make in the NBA just because he’s a really smart guy.  I like the all-around goodness of Otto Porter, but I’m not in love with him.  What I like most about Porter might be the fact that if picked by Phoenix, he will take minutes from Mr. 0, Michael Beasley.  And that is a good thing.  As for Bennett, I like his athleticism, but I’m worried about the reports of his weight gain.  An undersized four needs to have the proverbial chip-on-the-shoulder.  I guy who gains 20 pounds in two months because he is no longer playing basketball everyday doesn’t seem like a guy who is ready to work harder than everyone else at his position. 

8: Dennis Schroeder (DX: 16 ESPN: 23)

I love this guy.  I just don’t know much about him.  Behind McCollum, he’s my favorite point guard in the draft.  He’s only 19, and tore a better crop of players than this year’s draft class during the Nike Hoop Summit.  That’s good enough for me. 

9: Alex Len (DX: 4 ESPN: 5)

10: Trey Burke (DX: 6 ESPN: 12)

I’m not really excited about either of these two guys, but they make the top ten just because the mocks have them as high lottery picks.  So I’ll oblige. 

11: Lucas Nogueira (DX: 17 ESPN: 14)

12: Giannis Antetokounmpo (DX: 17 ESPN: 17)

13: Rudy Gobert (DX: 27 ESPN: 28)

Here is where I really get excited.  I guess I’m just a sucker for the mysterious unknown.  But if any of these guys fall to 30 or if Pheonix trades back into the 12-20 range after picking fifth, then I’m all over these three.  Even if Antetokounmpo wants to play right away, just remember…ANDREW WIGGINS 2014!!!!!!  As for the other two, a 9’ 7” and a 9’ 6” standing reach are good enough to be drafted into the lottery, but when you also consider the stat gurus saying they like Lucas Nogueira, then I like Lucas Nogueira. 

14: Gorgui Dieng (DX: 26 ESPN: 22)

15: Michael Carter-Williams (DX: 13 ESPN: 6)

16: Shane Larkin (DX: 14 ESPN: 15)

17: Steven Adams (DX: 10 ESPN: 10)

I really don’t have much to say about this group other than here they are, and other than Gorgui Dieng, who I think is going to be a solid defensive big, these guys intrigue me, but each has their flaws. 

18: DJ Stephens (DX: Undrafted ESPN: 60)

19: Glen Rice Jr. (DX: 37 ESPN: 34)

20: Shabazz Muhammed (DX: 18 ESPN: 18)

21: Sergey Karasev (DX: 15 ESPN: 13)

22: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DX: 9 ESPN: 9)

The wingmen.  I don’t really know who is going to be good from this group, but this is the order that my gut is telling me.  And yes, I have DJ Stephens first on this list.  Why?  46” is why.  Listen, if the Suns are picking any of these guys, it’s because they fell to 30.  What are the odds of actually finding a contributing player at 30?  I don’t know, but it’s small.  However, I would be willing to just throw Stephens out there for 15-20 minutes a game just to see him rebound and dunk.  The man can literally fly (Chris Traeger voice). 

23: Mason Plumlee (DX: 22 ESPN: 20)

24: Reggie Bullock (DX: 19 ESPN: 19)

25: Tim Hardaway Jr. (DX: 20 ESPN: 25)

26: Jamaal Franklin (DX: 24 ESPN: 24)

Energy guy mixed with another round of athletic wing players.  Obviously I like these guys less than the five players listed earlier, but if this is all that is available at 30, I’d still be pleased to grab one of these guys and just hope he turns into a good wing.  Unfortunately, I don’t see any of these three being good enough to put Jared Dudley back on the bench.  Sorry Jared, that’s just where you belong. 

27: Pierre Jackson (DX: 30 ESPN: 33)

28: Kelly Olynyk (DX: 12 ESPN: 16)

Yes, this is where I like Kelly Olynyk. 

29: Mike Muscala (DX: 34 ESPN: 31)

30: Erik Murphy (DX: 42 ESPN: 54)

31: Carrick Felix (DX: Undrafted ESPN: Undrafted)

Some admitted Sun Devil bias?  Yes, but I’m over it.  You should be too.  I really think he’s going to make an NBA roster, and if it’s the Suns at 57 because they picked a big at 30, then super.  Then I’d rather go for size.  Muscala or Murphy will do fine. 

32: Isaiah Canaan (DX: 23 ESPN: 21)

33: CJ Leslie (DX: 46 ESPN: 36)

34: Jeff Withey (DX: 28 ESPN: 35)

35: Tony Mitchell (DX: 29 ESPN: 42)

36: Allen Crabbe (DX: 25 ESPN: 26)

37: Archie Goodwin (DX: 48 ESPN: 37)

38: Ryan Kelly (DX: 57 ESPN: Undrafted)

39: Alex Abrines (DX: 33 ESPN: 32)

40: Arsalan Kazemi (DX: Undrafted ESPN: Undrafted)

And this rounds out my top 40.  Based on the mocks these should be plenty to get us all the way through two rounds tonight.