Offseason Suggestions

How about that draft, huh?  The excitement of it all was fantastic.  I can’t say I was overly excited when I heard the Suns draft Alex Len at #5, especially with both Nerlens Noel and Ben McLemore still available.  However, after listening to Sean McDonough explain his choice and reading way too many post-draft reports I am both put at ease and scared at the same time.  I feel slightly better about passing on Noel due to reports that doctors red flagged his bummed knee (although Len is in a walking boot…so, there’s that) and I also feel more comfortable passing on McLemore after hearing even more reports of his poor workouts and inconsistent play.  While I still think that Ben McLemore has a real shot to become the best player from this draft, I also think those chances took a big hit when Sacramento drafted him.  That team is a mess. 

For those reasons, I feel better about Len, but after hearing McDonough talk about his history with Len I’m actually a little nervous.  McDonough talked about scouting him years ago in Europe before anyone else knew Len even existed.  I’m worried now that McDonough fell in love with him partly because he knew Len before everyone else and then watched him develop into a top prospect.  It’s an ego boost to be the first onto a guy who then turns into a top prospect. 

Even with that bit of trepidation I still like the Len pick more than I did when David Stern called his name.  I mean, he’s Ukrainian.  How can you not love that?  And I’m also a fan of the Archie Goodwin pick, and I’ve realized that I am a sucker for the potential argument.  If you tell me a guy has loads of potential, I just can’t say no to that.  Now with the draft behind us, what’s next for the Suns?

With news today that the Suns will pick up Shannon Brown’s entire contract for next year, they already have twelve men on the roster, assuming no other trades or cuts.  Even with a full roster, it is still anything but complete.  There are four power forwards on the roster and only one true shooting guard.  Jared Dudley can play both the two and the three and Marcus Morris can play both the three and the four, so technically there.  That leaves Dragic and Goodwin at PG, Brown and Dudley at SG, Dudley, and Marcus Morris at SF, Scola, Frye, and the Morris’ at PF and Gortat and Len at C, with the option of Frye and Scola filling in while Len recovers from foot surgery.  

You may have noticed that I did not include either Michael Beasley of Kendall Marshall.  You noticed correctly.  Marshall will be squarely planted as the on the bench as the twelfth man this year, and Beasley shouldn’t even be on this team by training camp.  Remember, his salary is not guaranteed in 2014-15, so he is a $6 million expiring contract.  Those can come in pretty handy.  And if no one is willing to trade for a terrible chemistry guy, who doesn’t work hard or give consistent effort, then McDonough and company need to cut him.  They didn’t sign him to this contract and should have no qualms about cutting him. 

With Beasley cut that creates a need for another wing player (Really, the need was there all along because this team is just terrible when he plays).  With just under $7 million in cap space there is plenty of room to find a decent replacement who can play behind either wing position off the bench.  I have three suggestions.

Chase Budinger 

Budinger had a bit of down season while in Minnesota.  Both his three-point percentage and his DR% were down last year, but his TS% was still above .500.  However, one down year just means that he can be had on the cheap, and if he can return to his pre-Minnesota form, then he’ll be a bargain value player again.  Plus he still has great athleticism. 

Corey Brewer

Brewer is another athletic wing player.  He is a better defender than Budinger, who had the third best steals per 40 min of all swingmen in the NBA last year, and the ninth best steal rate for all positions in the NBA.  However, if the Suns want Brewer’s defense then they’ll need to trade off three-point shooting.  Brewer’s career three-point percentage is only 29.8%. 

Al-Farouq Aminu

Aminu is a third year player who most recently played in New Orleans.  He is a super athlete and at 6’ 9” and a 7’ 3” wingspan make him a great rebounder at his position.  While he shouldn’t play the two, acquiring Aminu can allow the Suns to keep Dudley solely at the two or allow them to go small with a number of different combinations.  He has a good steal rate and block rate at his position, but shot only 21% from three in only 19 attempts.  He did shoot over 30% as a rookie in many more attempts, but clearly has not made that a priority in his game.

All of these players fit McDonough’s desire to get more athletic.  And I also believe that each will make the team better.  But, with so few options to retool the roster, is acquiring one decently priced asset even the best option for the offseason?  I say no. 

I  that I’ve written before that “blowing up” a roster is a really dumb thing to do.  And I still believe that, especially when you have a competitive team with multiple all-stars.  However, the Suns are already too far down this road to turn back now.  The roster is completely bereft of all-stars.  Dragic could potentially get some consideration with a career year and more team wins, but let’s be honest, that’s not happening this year.  This team is in full rebuilding mode, meaning they are in full “let’s tank for an entire season so that we have enough ping pong balls to have a good chance to draft Andrew Wiggings but even if we don’t win the lottery we can still get a great player” mode.  So with that strategy, let’s make it count.  I’ve devised a number of trades that can help with this strategy.  Now trust me, this was not easy.  Jared Dudley is my favorite Sun in quite some time.  I hate to see him go, but is he really going to be a key player in a long-term rebuilding process?  I don’t know.  Let’s begin.

Trade #1

Suns Acquire:                                                    Thunder Acquire:

Kendrick Perkins                                               Marcin Gortat

Jeremy Lamb                                                     Jared Dudley

Perry Jones III

1^st Rd Pick* (Mavs)

*Top 20 protected through 2017

This trade does one thing.  It makes the Suns younger.  Perkins is definitely a downgrade from Gortat, but PJ3 and Jeremy Lamb are talented young assets and another 1^st Rd pick gives the Suns more flexibility in the circumstance that a star player comes onto the market. 

Trade #2

Suns Acquire:                                                    Bulls Acquire:

Luol Deng                                                         Marcin Gortat

Rip Hamilton                                                     Jared Dudley

1^st Rd Pick                                                        Michael Beasley

In this trade the Suns pick up two expiring contracts.  One of which, Deng, could possibly be re-signed as a great role piece alongside a young, star player…you know, someone whose name rhymes with shiggins.  That means the Suns are basically trading Marcin Gortat for a late first-round pick and the opportunity to dump Beasley.  The Bulls get a fantastic backup center (similar to what they had with Omer Asik) and a cheaper defensive starter with a better three-point shot. 

Trade #3

Suns Acquire:                                                    Heat Acquire:

Udonis Haslem                                                  Marcin Gortat

1^st Rd Pick (76ers)*

2^nd Rd Pick (Timberwolves)

*Top 12 protected through 2015

This trade is all about the draft picks.  Neither pick is going to light the world on fire, but it does give the Suns even more assets to make a move when the right time presents itself.  Plus, the more minutes Udonis Haslem plays at starting center, the more I can hear those ping pong balls bouncing. 

Trade #4

Suns Acquire:                                                    Heat Acquire:                                    Nets Acquire:

MarShon Brooks                                               Marcin Gortat                                   Udonis Haslem

1^st Rd Pick (76ers)*                                                                                                   Markieff Morris

*Top 12 protected through 2015                                                                                1^st Rd Pick (Heat)

This trade offers a lot more for the Suns.  MarShon Brooks is a great young player at a position that the Suns desparately need, and the Nets have a newfound glut of wing players (albeit, very old wing players).  The Heat get the mobile, true center that they have been searching for and all they give up is Haslem and a couple first-round picks.  The sticking point is going to be the Nets.  Are they willing to part with Brooks for two needed big men and a late first-round pick?

Trade #5

Suns Acquire:                                                    Heat Acquire:

Chris Bosh                                                        Marcin Gortat

                                                                         Jared Dudley

                                                                         Channing Frye

                                                                         1^st Rd Pick (T-Wolves)*

*Top 13 protected in 2014, top 12 protected in 2015, or else two 2^nd Rd picks in 2016 and 2017

This trade is obviously on a different tone than the rest, and it could have been a real possibility had said Chris Bosh not pulled down an enormous offensive rebound in game six.  Either way, the Heat’s vulnerability against the Pacers and the Spurs showed in the playoffs, and some are talking about their need for an upgrade at center.  Gortat is that upgrade, Dudley is yet another 3/D guy, and Frye can fill a little of the stretch four role coach Spoelstra designed for Bosh.  Would this hurt the Suns’ chances of landing a top draft pick in 2014?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  But even if Bosh came in and picked up a struggling Suns roster, management could always play the Spurs card and sit their superstar player long enough to land the number one overall pick, then draft a future hall of famer, and win four championships.  Hey it could happen.  

2013 Big Board

Happy Draft Day everyone!  This is, perhaps, my favorite day of the year, especially when the Suns have a top 5 pick AND the desire to keep said pick.  Let me first mention that this draft blog comes to you after a failed attempt on my part at analytics.  I put a lot of time and resources into statistically predicting which prospects are going to end up as the cream of the crop, and my predictions came out unthinkably bad.  Better luck next year, I suppose. 

Because of this failed attempt, this year my big board is based solely on my gut (you know, the conglomeration of bits of information gathered from news articles, podcasts, mock drafts, videos and unspoken biases all rolled into my subconscious thought), which is cool because this is how NBA teams based their draft rankings for 25-plus years until the Spurs started finding Hall of Famers in the late second round.  Seriously though, do we really think that RC Buford is just really good at his job?  I would be more willing to believe that Buford has some sort of stat geek/time traveler/fortune teller/minion chained in his basement that is feeding him answers.  Whatever it is, I will find the answer.  Now, without further adieu…my big board:

1: Nerlens Noel (Draft Express Mock: 1 Chad Ford Mock 7.0: 1)

2: Victor Oladipo (DX: 5 ESPN: 2)

These two are definitely my favorite players in this draft.  Oladipo is probably my favorite, but I’m too worried the Noel will become a defensive wizard in the NBA.  Plus, as one of the youngest players in this draft, I can’t rule out the possibility of Noel developing an offensive game given a few years.  Plus-plus, Noel’s knee injury just increases the 2014 ping pong balls.  ANDREW WIGGINS 2014!!!!

3: Ben McLemore (DX: 2 ESPN: 4)

4: Cody Zeller (DX: 11 ESPN: 11)

Same story for these two.  I like Cody Zeller more than McLemore, but that whole potential argument is swaying my gut to go with McLemore over Zeller.  Also, if Zeller is picked, I want him to play alongside Gortat, not in his place.  Zeller is too small (standing reach, not height) to play center against the giants in the NBA. 

5: Otto Porter (DX: 3 ESPN: 3)

6: CJ McCollum (DX: 7 ESPN: 7)

7: Anthony Bennett (DX: 8 ESPN: 8)

I really like McCollum.  I think he’s going to make in the NBA just because he’s a really smart guy.  I like the all-around goodness of Otto Porter, but I’m not in love with him.  What I like most about Porter might be the fact that if picked by Phoenix, he will take minutes from Mr. 0, Michael Beasley.  And that is a good thing.  As for Bennett, I like his athleticism, but I’m worried about the reports of his weight gain.  An undersized four needs to have the proverbial chip-on-the-shoulder.  I guy who gains 20 pounds in two months because he is no longer playing basketball everyday doesn’t seem like a guy who is ready to work harder than everyone else at his position. 

8: Dennis Schroeder (DX: 16 ESPN: 23)

I love this guy.  I just don’t know much about him.  Behind McCollum, he’s my favorite point guard in the draft.  He’s only 19, and tore a better crop of players than this year’s draft class during the Nike Hoop Summit.  That’s good enough for me. 

9: Alex Len (DX: 4 ESPN: 5)

10: Trey Burke (DX: 6 ESPN: 12)

I’m not really excited about either of these two guys, but they make the top ten just because the mocks have them as high lottery picks.  So I’ll oblige. 

11: Lucas Nogueira (DX: 17 ESPN: 14)

12: Giannis Antetokounmpo (DX: 17 ESPN: 17)

13: Rudy Gobert (DX: 27 ESPN: 28)

Here is where I really get excited.  I guess I’m just a sucker for the mysterious unknown.  But if any of these guys fall to 30 or if Pheonix trades back into the 12-20 range after picking fifth, then I’m all over these three.  Even if Antetokounmpo wants to play right away, just remember…ANDREW WIGGINS 2014!!!!!!  As for the other two, a 9’ 7” and a 9’ 6” standing reach are good enough to be drafted into the lottery, but when you also consider the stat gurus saying they like Lucas Nogueira, then I like Lucas Nogueira. 

14: Gorgui Dieng (DX: 26 ESPN: 22)

15: Michael Carter-Williams (DX: 13 ESPN: 6)

16: Shane Larkin (DX: 14 ESPN: 15)

17: Steven Adams (DX: 10 ESPN: 10)

I really don’t have much to say about this group other than here they are, and other than Gorgui Dieng, who I think is going to be a solid defensive big, these guys intrigue me, but each has their flaws. 

18: DJ Stephens (DX: Undrafted ESPN: 60)

19: Glen Rice Jr. (DX: 37 ESPN: 34)

20: Shabazz Muhammed (DX: 18 ESPN: 18)

21: Sergey Karasev (DX: 15 ESPN: 13)

22: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DX: 9 ESPN: 9)

The wingmen.  I don’t really know who is going to be good from this group, but this is the order that my gut is telling me.  And yes, I have DJ Stephens first on this list.  Why?  46” is why.  Listen, if the Suns are picking any of these guys, it’s because they fell to 30.  What are the odds of actually finding a contributing player at 30?  I don’t know, but it’s small.  However, I would be willing to just throw Stephens out there for 15-20 minutes a game just to see him rebound and dunk.  The man can literally fly (Chris Traeger voice). 

23: Mason Plumlee (DX: 22 ESPN: 20)

24: Reggie Bullock (DX: 19 ESPN: 19)

25: Tim Hardaway Jr. (DX: 20 ESPN: 25)

26: Jamaal Franklin (DX: 24 ESPN: 24)

Energy guy mixed with another round of athletic wing players.  Obviously I like these guys less than the five players listed earlier, but if this is all that is available at 30, I’d still be pleased to grab one of these guys and just hope he turns into a good wing.  Unfortunately, I don’t see any of these three being good enough to put Jared Dudley back on the bench.  Sorry Jared, that’s just where you belong. 

27: Pierre Jackson (DX: 30 ESPN: 33)

28: Kelly Olynyk (DX: 12 ESPN: 16)

Yes, this is where I like Kelly Olynyk. 

29: Mike Muscala (DX: 34 ESPN: 31)

30: Erik Murphy (DX: 42 ESPN: 54)

31: Carrick Felix (DX: Undrafted ESPN: Undrafted)

Some admitted Sun Devil bias?  Yes, but I’m over it.  You should be too.  I really think he’s going to make an NBA roster, and if it’s the Suns at 57 because they picked a big at 30, then super.  Then I’d rather go for size.  Muscala or Murphy will do fine. 

32: Isaiah Canaan (DX: 23 ESPN: 21)

33: CJ Leslie (DX: 46 ESPN: 36)

34: Jeff Withey (DX: 28 ESPN: 35)

35: Tony Mitchell (DX: 29 ESPN: 42)

36: Allen Crabbe (DX: 25 ESPN: 26)

37: Archie Goodwin (DX: 48 ESPN: 37)

38: Ryan Kelly (DX: 57 ESPN: Undrafted)

39: Alex Abrines (DX: 33 ESPN: 32)

40: Arsalan Kazemi (DX: Undrafted ESPN: Undrafted)

And this rounds out my top 40.  Based on the mocks these should be plenty to get us all the way through two rounds tonight.  

My First Podcast

It seems like everyone is cranking out podcasts these days.  Well, I felt a little left out of this audio craze, so what better time than the NBA Finals/Draft week to premiere my very first podcast!  Joining me to talk a little NBA Game 7 (I realize I'm a little late here, we recorded before the game was actually played) is my buddy John Strobot.  You can follow him on twitter at @moufaman.  I hope you enjoy!