My favorite time of year is right around the corner…the NBA
Draft. This year the Suns will draft 13th
and should have a few good options at the position, although probably not a
superstar. The following is my Big Board
of possible Suns selections. These are
all names that have either been speculated as potential picks for the Suns or
players who were consistently still available on many mock drafts from various
sources. Without further adieu, with the
13th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft the Phoenix Suns select…
Perry Jones –
Immensely gifted physically, Perry Jones III has physical tools are akin to
Kevin Durant. Unfortunately he does not
work as hard or have the consistency of Kevin Durant. Jones III is a good rebounder, but may be too
lean to rebound consistently at the power forward position. His shooting percentage is decent, with a 54
TS% his senior year and 58% TS as a freshman.
This number may not be indicative of his jump shooting ability as many
of his shots came on alley-oop passes, using his superior physical talents on
the college level. This is coupled with
his 30% 3-point field goal percentage, meaning that Jones III has significant
work to do on his outside shooting.
Jones III has been labeled as soft player with a weak motor. This is probably a fair assessment as Jones
III was all too willing to pull up short for a jump shot rather than getting
all the way to the rim. Despite all of
this, Jones III is arguably the most athletically gifted player in the
draft. He has the potential to be a
go-to, superstar player. If Jones III
really wants to be an all-star player like he says, then he will need to shake
all of the Vince Carter out of him and make a better effort to get to the rim,
while putting in the work necessary to get stronger to finish in traffic.
Conclusion: Because of his immense talent, Jones III will
likely stick around in the NBA for a while.
At 13, the potential to be great is too much for the Suns to pass
up. If Jones III is on the board, the
Suns would do well to draft him and get his hard-working teammates (Jared
Dudley, Grant Hill, Steve Nash [hopefully]) working with him and rubbing off on
him to ultimately reach his high ceiling.
Dion Waiters – Waiters
is a good athlete whose primary strength is his ability to finish in
transition. He is undersized for a two guard,
and may struggle to defend some of the larger shooting guards in the
league. However, Waiters has the scoring
potential to be a dynamic scorer in the NBA.
His shooting is good but not great with a 56.5 TS%, and a 36.3 3pt% his
sophomore season. If Waiters does
develop into a number one option, he still has the potential to be a good
scoring guard as part of a second unit off the bench. His closest comparison in my view is Rodney
Stuckey.
Conclusion: When Dion
Waiters withdrew from the NBA combine in Chicago, many people suggested that a
team had given Waiters a promise, with the Suns as an oft-thought promisor. While this may be the case, I do not think it
is a wise decision. While Waiters is one
of the better players in the pool of possible Suns selections, this could
severely limit the Suns if a higher profile player falls to them (Andre
Drummond, Harrison Barnes, Damian Lillard).
If Jones III is gone, Phoenix should draft Waiters and hope that he can
develop into a consistent go-to player.
Terrence Jones – Think
Josh Smith. I believe that Terrence
Jones will be one of the steals of the draft.
He may not have the upside of Perry Jones III, but certainly has the
talent to be a top 10 selection. Why
then, do most pundits have him in the mid to late first round? The answer partly lies with expectations and
with his teammates. Jones was highly
recruited out of high school, and did not quite live up to the expectations his
freshman year at Kentucky. While his
numbers were good, they were not great. As
a sophomore, Jones deferred to Player of the Year winner, Anthony Davis, who reduced
some of Jones’s rebounding numbers.
Jones had a 22.5 defensive rebounding percentage his freshman year. That number dropped to 16.4 after Davis’s
arrival. Jones is also an underrated
shot blocker. While he will never be the
shot blocker that Davis is, or even that Josh Smith is, he still has the
athleticism and size to defend the rim.
Jones can also shoot from the outside and put the ball on the floor and
penetrate, making him a valuable NBA commodity.
Conclusion: Jones
will be good pro and can do many things well, but the Suns do not have an
obvious need at power forward due to the drafting and good play of Markieff
Morris last season. Fortunately for Suns
fans, Jones is versatile enough to play some small forward as well as power
forward. While the Suns do need a
shooting guard, Jones is too good to pass up and will make a great asset for
the team, either as the future power forward or as an asset that can be used
for future negotiations.
Austin Rivers – Rivers
measured well at the draft combine coming in at 6’5” inches in shoes and a
6’7.5” wingspan. That should quell some
of the doubts about his ability to play the off guard in the NBA, which is more
his natural position than the point. Rivers
has a great first step which allows him to get into the lane, and finishes well
in the paint. While Rivers is pegged as
a great scorer, his spot up shooting needs improvement. Changing his shooting form, may go a long way
in improving his consistency. Rivers
tends to fade away from the hoop and kick out his leg even in the absence of a
defender. A more, straight up and down
shooting motion should help him. Rivers
will not be the star player that Duke hoped to get when he landed in Durham,
but Rivers can be a good scoring option off the bench, a la Jason Terry or
Goran Dragic. Rivers may not have the
upside of a guy like Dion Waiters, but I believe he is less likely to be a
complete draft bust.
Conclusion: Rivers is
a safe pick, but a safe pick that can fill a need. While Rivers may be a dependable player, he
is not the dynamic player that will convince Steve Nash to re-sign for a chance
to win immediately. If Jones III,
Waiters and Jones are gone, Rivers should be the Suns pick.
Kendall Marshall –Kendall
Marshall is neither very athletic nor exceptionally big, yet many peg Marshall
as a lottery pick. This is because
Marshall is seen as a great, pure point guard; a floor general, if you
will. What Marshall lacks in athletic
ability he makes up for in basketball IQ.
He ranked second and third in the Division I in assist rate his two
years in college. Although, detractors
will say that he had the luxury of playing for one of the most talented teams
in the country at North Carolina (two of his teammates will be taken in the lottery
this year, and more will go next year).
Along with his passing ability, Marshall is a good spot up shooter. These two qualities alone should allow him to
have a solid career in the NBA. What is
more interesting, Marshall measured a 37” vertical leap on the NBA combine,
better than Tony Wroten, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Tyshawn Taylor. Despite this measurement, Marshall plays low
to the ground. He has no lift on his
jump shot, but as long as he does not need to be a shot creator, this should
not be an issue in the NBA. Where
Marshall must get better is finishing at the rim and using his right hand. Marshall has shown that he can be a smart
player, but needs to learn how to finish in the paint a la Steve Nash, Tony
Parker or Jose Calderon.
Conclusion: With some
development, Marshall has the ability to develop into an All-Star player simply
based on his basketball IQ, although he still has lots of work left to do. If Steve Nash is gone, Marshall would be a
decent pick as the next point guard, but the team will need to be patient with
him as he develops and must surround him with talent with which to work. Of course, this may be Lon Babby’s strategy
since a starting lineup of Marshall, Jared Dudley, Grant Hill Markieff Morris
and Marcin Gortat certainly will be in the high lottery next year.
Terrence Ross – Ross
is a terrific athlete and an above average shooter at the college level. Ross shot 37% from three and had a 56 TS%
overall. Surprisingly, Ross had opposite
problem of Perry Jones III in that he struggled at the rim, instead of the
outside. Ross struggled to finish in
transition despite his elite athletic ability.
Even though he has difficulty finishing in traffic, Ross still has
enough leaping ability and quickness to create an open jump shot if the need
arises. Ross may also struggle to be an
elite defender, along the likes of Tony Allen or Andre Iguadala, as Ross does
not have the length of other high-profile NBA defenders with only a 6’7”
wingspan.
Conclusion: Ross is a
good enough shooter and a good enough athlete to be a solid mid-first round
pick, and with work, can become a solid contributor as a rotation player in the
league. If the first five players on
this board are all gone, Ross will make a good selection for the Suns.
Tyler Zeller – Watching
Zeller at North Carolina reminded me of Paul Gasol. He has good touch around the rim and can
extend his range out to twenty feet. His
keeps the ball high and uses his length to prevent blocked shots. However Zeller took advantage of the lower
competition in the ACC compared the NBA.
He only measured a 7’0” wingspan and an 8’8.5” standing reach at the NBA
draft combine in Chicago. These numbers
may seem good at first glance, but keep in mind that 21 other draft hopefuls
had a higher standing reach than Zeller, including SG/SF Michael
Kidd-Gilchrist. With offensive and
defensive rebounds being determined by inches, and without elite leaping
ability, Zeller just does not have the physical skill-set to be a great power
forward on the level of Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol. Even still, Zeller is polished and can be an
NBA contributor. He needs to continue to
get stronger and learn how to get rebounds with his positioning rather than his
length.
Conclusion: Without a
huge upside for Zeller and without an immediate need at power forward, the Suns
would do well to look at other potential options on the board. If, somehow, those options are gone, Zeller
will make a good, consistent pro and can contribute right away.
Jeremy Lamb – Lamb
is a long, athletic two-guard who can really shoot the basketball. He has good range and a quick release. His 6’11” wingspan along with his quick
release should allow him to get many good looks in the NBA. While lamb has shown that he is a good
athlete, posting a 38” vertical leap at the NBA combine, he is not an explosive
player. Lamb also tends to play lackadaisical
at times, although this could be a consequence of playing 92% of his team’s
minutes. Lamb’s physical tools give him
the ability to be a solid wing as a good spot-up shooter and lock-down
defender, but his pokey play during some games gives reason for alarm.
Conclusion: Lamb just does not seem to have the drive to be
an elite basketball player, but he may stick around for a while because of his
ability to shoot the ball. For the Suns,
his position fills a gaping hole, but Jeremy Lamb is not the answer the Suns need. He plays too soft to consistently get to the
free throw line and is not a dynamic scorer.
The Suns would do well to avoid Lamb and look at a player with more
potential to shine and develop.
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