Inaugural Suns Draft Board

My favorite time of year is right around the corner…the NBA Draft.  This year the Suns will draft 13^th and should have a few good options at the position, although probably not a superstar.  The following is my Big Board of possible Suns selections.  These are all names that have either been speculated as potential picks for the Suns or players who were consistently still available on many mock drafts from various sources.  Without further adieu, with the 13^th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft the Phoenix Suns select…

Perry Jones – Immensely gifted physically, Perry Jones III has physical tools are akin to Kevin Durant.  Unfortunately he does not work as hard or have the consistency of Kevin Durant.  Jones III is a good rebounder, but may be too lean to rebound consistently at the power forward position.  His shooting percentage is decent, with a 54 TS% his senior year and 58% TS as a freshman.  This number may not be indicative of his jump shooting ability as many of his shots came on alley-oop passes, using his superior physical talents on the college level.  This is coupled with his 30% 3-point field goal percentage, meaning that Jones III has significant work to do on his outside shooting.  Jones III has been labeled as soft player with a weak motor.  This is probably a fair assessment as Jones III was all too willing to pull up short for a jump shot rather than getting all the way to the rim.  Despite all of this, Jones III is arguably the most athletically gifted player in the draft.  He has the potential to be a go-to, superstar player.  If Jones III really wants to be an all-star player like he says, then he will need to shake all of the Vince Carter out of him and make a better effort to get to the rim, while putting in the work necessary to get stronger to finish in traffic. 

Conclusion: Because of his immense talent, Jones III will likely stick around in the NBA for a while.  At 13, the potential to be great is too much for the Suns to pass up.  If Jones III is on the board, the Suns would do well to draft him and get his hard-working teammates (Jared Dudley, Grant Hill, Steve Nash [hopefully]) working with him and rubbing off on him to ultimately reach his high ceiling. 

Dion Waiters – Waiters is a good athlete whose primary strength is his ability to finish in transition.  He is undersized for a two guard, and may struggle to defend some of the larger shooting guards in the league.  However, Waiters has the scoring potential to be a dynamic scorer in the NBA.  His shooting is good but not great with a 56.5 TS%, and a 36.3 3pt% his sophomore season.  If Waiters does develop into a number one option, he still has the potential to be a good scoring guard as part of a second unit off the bench.  His closest comparison in my view is Rodney Stuckey. 

Conclusion:  When Dion Waiters withdrew from the NBA combine in Chicago, many people suggested that a team had given Waiters a promise, with the Suns as an oft-thought promisor.  While this may be the case, I do not think it is a wise decision.  While Waiters is one of the better players in the pool of possible Suns selections, this could severely limit the Suns if a higher profile player falls to them (Andre Drummond, Harrison Barnes, Damian Lillard).  If Jones III is gone, Phoenix should draft Waiters and hope that he can develop into a consistent go-to player. 

Terrence Jones – Think Josh Smith.  I believe that Terrence Jones will be one of the steals of the draft.  He may not have the upside of Perry Jones III, but certainly has the talent to be a top 10 selection.  Why then, do most pundits have him in the mid to late first round?  The answer partly lies with expectations and with his teammates.  Jones was highly recruited out of high school, and did not quite live up to the expectations his freshman year at Kentucky.  While his numbers were good, they were not great.  As a sophomore, Jones deferred to Player of the Year winner, Anthony Davis, who reduced some of Jones’s rebounding numbers.  Jones had a 22.5 defensive rebounding percentage his freshman year.  That number dropped to 16.4 after Davis’s arrival.  Jones is also an underrated shot blocker.  While he will never be the shot blocker that Davis is, or even that Josh Smith is, he still has the athleticism and size to defend the rim.  Jones can also shoot from the outside and put the ball on the floor and penetrate, making him a valuable NBA commodity.

Conclusion:  Jones will be good pro and can do many things well, but the Suns do not have an obvious need at power forward due to the drafting and good play of Markieff Morris last season.  Fortunately for Suns fans, Jones is versatile enough to play some small forward as well as power forward.  While the Suns do need a shooting guard, Jones is too good to pass up and will make a great asset for the team, either as the future power forward or as an asset that can be used for future negotiations. 

Austin Rivers – Rivers measured well at the draft combine coming in at 6’5” inches in shoes and a 6’7.5” wingspan.  That should quell some of the doubts about his ability to play the off guard in the NBA, which is more his natural position than the point.  Rivers has a great first step which allows him to get into the lane, and finishes well in the paint.  While Rivers is pegged as a great scorer, his spot up shooting needs improvement.  Changing his shooting form, may go a long way in improving his consistency.  Rivers tends to fade away from the hoop and kick out his leg even in the absence of a defender.  A more, straight up and down shooting motion should help him.  Rivers will not be the star player that Duke hoped to get when he landed in Durham, but Rivers can be a good scoring option off the bench, a la Jason Terry or Goran Dragic.  Rivers may not have the upside of a guy like Dion Waiters, but I believe he is less likely to be a complete draft bust. 

Conclusion:  Rivers is a safe pick, but a safe pick that can fill a need.  While Rivers may be a dependable player, he is not the dynamic player that will convince Steve Nash to re-sign for a chance to win immediately.  If Jones III, Waiters and Jones are gone, Rivers should be the Suns pick. 

Kendall Marshall –Kendall Marshall is neither very athletic nor exceptionally big, yet many peg Marshall as a lottery pick.  This is because Marshall is seen as a great, pure point guard; a floor general, if you will.  What Marshall lacks in athletic ability he makes up for in basketball IQ.  He ranked second and third in the Division I in assist rate his two years in college.  Although, detractors will say that he had the luxury of playing for one of the most talented teams in the country at North Carolina (two of his teammates will be taken in the lottery this year, and more will go next year).  Along with his passing ability, Marshall is a good spot up shooter.  These two qualities alone should allow him to have a solid career in the NBA.  What is more interesting, Marshall measured a 37” vertical leap on the NBA combine, better than Tony Wroten, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Tyshawn Taylor.  Despite this measurement, Marshall plays low to the ground.  He has no lift on his jump shot, but as long as he does not need to be a shot creator, this should not be an issue in the NBA.  Where Marshall must get better is finishing at the rim and using his right hand.  Marshall has shown that he can be a smart player, but needs to learn how to finish in the paint a la Steve Nash, Tony Parker or Jose Calderon. 

Conclusion:  With some development, Marshall has the ability to develop into an All-Star player simply based on his basketball IQ, although he still has lots of work left to do.  If Steve Nash is gone, Marshall would be a decent pick as the next point guard, but the team will need to be patient with him as he develops and must surround him with talent with which to work.  Of course, this may be Lon Babby’s strategy since a starting lineup of Marshall, Jared Dudley, Grant Hill Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat certainly will be in the high lottery next year. 

Terrence Ross – Ross is a terrific athlete and an above average shooter at the college level.  Ross shot 37% from three and had a 56 TS% overall.  Surprisingly, Ross had opposite problem of Perry Jones III in that he struggled at the rim, instead of the outside.  Ross struggled to finish in transition despite his elite athletic ability.  Even though he has difficulty finishing in traffic, Ross still has enough leaping ability and quickness to create an open jump shot if the need arises.  Ross may also struggle to be an elite defender, along the likes of Tony Allen or Andre Iguadala, as Ross does not have the length of other high-profile NBA defenders with only a 6’7” wingspan. 

Conclusion:  Ross is a good enough shooter and a good enough athlete to be a solid mid-first round pick, and with work, can become a solid contributor as a rotation player in the league.  If the first five players on this board are all gone, Ross will make a good selection for the Suns.

Tyler Zeller – Watching Zeller at North Carolina reminded me of Paul Gasol.  He has good touch around the rim and can extend his range out to twenty feet.  His keeps the ball high and uses his length to prevent blocked shots.  However Zeller took advantage of the lower competition in the ACC compared the NBA.  He only measured a 7’0” wingspan and an 8’8.5” standing reach at the NBA draft combine in Chicago.  These numbers may seem good at first glance, but keep in mind that 21 other draft hopefuls had a higher standing reach than Zeller, including SG/SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.  With offensive and defensive rebounds being determined by inches, and without elite leaping ability, Zeller just does not have the physical skill-set to be a great power forward on the level of Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol.  Even still, Zeller is polished and can be an NBA contributor.  He needs to continue to get stronger and learn how to get rebounds with his positioning rather than his length. 

Conclusion:  Without a huge upside for Zeller and without an immediate need at power forward, the Suns would do well to look at other potential options on the board.  If, somehow, those options are gone, Zeller will make a good, consistent pro and can contribute right away. 

Jeremy Lamb – Lamb is a long, athletic two-guard who can really shoot the basketball.  He has good range and a quick release.  His 6’11” wingspan along with his quick release should allow him to get many good looks in the NBA.  While lamb has shown that he is a good athlete, posting a 38” vertical leap at the NBA combine, he is not an explosive player.  Lamb also tends to play lackadaisical at times, although this could be a consequence of playing 92% of his team’s minutes.  Lamb’s physical tools give him the ability to be a solid wing as a good spot-up shooter and lock-down defender, but his pokey play during some games gives reason for alarm.

Conclusion: Lamb just does not seem to have the drive to be an elite basketball player, but he may stick around for a while because of his ability to shoot the ball.  For the Suns, his position fills a gaping hole, but Jeremy Lamb is not the answer the Suns need.  He plays too soft to consistently get to the free throw line and is not a dynamic scorer.  The Suns would do well to avoid Lamb and look at a player with more potential to shine and develop.  

Owners Just Don't Understand

I know I’m a little late to the game, but I still wanted to chime in on the Diamondbacks’ most recent fiasco.  I’m sure you’ve heard or heard about the comments that Ken Kendrick made about Stephen Drew and Justin Upton.  If you haven’t, have a listen here. 

If you can’t spare fifteen minutes to listen to the interview or are reading this at work and can’t turn up the volume, then I’ll give a quick rehash of what Kendrick said.  Kendrick called out shortstop Stephen Drew for not trying hard enough to come back from his injury.  What’s worse, is that Kendrick outright stated that Drew and his agent, Scott Boras, made the decision to not play in order to secure a more lucrative contract next season, even after he was cleared by doctors to play over a month ago. 

Next, we have comments made about star right fielder Justin Upton (I know, his play this year has been anything but star quality).  Kendrick basically said that he is disappointed in Upton and thinks that he should be producing at a much higher level than his current .245 average, 5 home runs and 54 strikeouts. 

You might be thinking to yourself right now, “I think Kendrick’s spot-on.  Upton has been down-right bad this year; and we thought Drew might be ready for spring training.  What’s taking so long?!”  If you thought that, then I’m right there with you.  Last season Upton was touted as an MVP candidate in what we all thought was his breakout season.  He finally put together a consistent year and looked like he was just beginning to tap into the immense potential that we were all promised on draft day in 2005.  But this season, he has been far from an MVP candidate and was even benched during the Rockies series while the rest of the team had a heyday against Colorado’s pitching. 

As for Drew, it’s harder to pile on a guy who is coming back from a devastating ankle injury.  It was gruesome and I don’t even like thinking about it.  But, based on reports he was cleared to play by doctors over a month ago, and he is just now beginning to play back to back nine inning games.  He is taking his rehab VERY cautiously.  It’s hard to fault a guy who does not feel that his body is ready.  It is how he feels and he will know better than anyone when he is ready.  As fans though, we don’t really ask for much.  All we ask is that you try as hard as you can and that you like us.  Show us some heart and emotion and then tell us how much you like us and our city.  If you do those things we will love you forever.  Drew was never one to show much emotion, but he always played hard.  It seems now that, for whatever reason, he may be holding back.

Now as a fan, do I agree with what Ken Kendrick said?  Perhaps to some degree.  Am I happy he went on the radio for the entire world to hear and blast two of our most tenured guys?  Absolutely NOT!  If there was a good chance Stephen Drew would not play baseball in Arizona next year, now there is no chance he plays here next season.  Here is what I do not like about Kendrick’s decision to make those comments.  As much as fans like to be coddled, players like it more.  There is nothing worse for a fanbase than the label of “bad ownership.”  No one wants to come play for a franchise where the owner is going on the radio and calling out players for their effort.  Justin Upton is only 24 years old.  I know this is already his fifth full season in the major leagues, but he will be a free agent after the 2015 season, when he is 27 years old, presumably at the peak of his baseball powers.  I still have hope that Justin Upton will become one of the best players in baseball.  He was last year, let’s not let a slow start hinder our chances of resigning one of the best players in the game. 

A similar thought should be made for Stephen Drew.  Even if he plans on walking after the season, what good does it do to burn the bridges now?  What good does it do to tell every player in the major leagues that Arizona has an owner he goes on the radio and questions the effort, heart and integrity of his players?  I will tell you, it does not do any good.  Secondly, does it even make sense for Drew to delay his return?  How is not playing going to help him land a better contract next year?  Regardless, it was a bad move by Kendrick and now we can only hope that the damage done is reparable.  Otherwise, we can just hope to go back to our position as a small-market, low-payroll team that hopes to catch lightning in a bottle every few years and win a division title or maybe even a pennant.  Then we can watch our rising star players cash in with more generous, player-friendly franchises.  

In Steve We Trust

In light of Paola Boivin’s column in the Arizona Republic, it is good to see that Robert Sarver and the management, in fact, do have a plan for the future. And it is even more heartening to see that the dreaded “blow up the team” option is not the default plan of action like it seems to be for many teams. As I have written before, blowing up a team is dangerous as it can be years, even decades before a team finds success again. Just look at the Knicks. They tanked for years under Isiah Thomas (purposely or not, we may never know) and then shipped their contracts away under Donnie Walsh all for a chance to sign LeBron in the Summer of 2010. How did that turn out? They ended up with an overrated power forward who needs a great point guard and a defensive center to make up for his miniscule defensive IQ. But you argue, the Knicks ARE relevant and are playing great. Yes, but that relevance is the result of blindly stumbling into a no-name D-Leaguer who they were ready to cut, and who would never have even played had Baron Davis not been injured. The point is: tanking does not consistently work. Build your assets. Do your best to be competitive. And create a front office full of competent, basketball professionals.

With that being said, what should the Suns do going forward? Steve Nash is still playing great. Play it out and see if they can’t find a Jeremy Lin-type at shooting guard. Keep adding quality players. Markieff Morris has been a great draft pick so far. Robin Lopez has even shown signs of good basketball. If there is a market, flip Lopez for more assets. Send him to New Jersey or L.A. for a future first round pick so they can sweeten the pot for Dwight Howard, but do NOT trade away Steve Nash for a 4.3% chance of drafting first.

No possible trade involving Steve Nash is a good trade…a fan base wants to see loyalty if they are going to be loyal themselves. Let Steve Nash retire as a Sun and put him in the Ring of Honor. The only trade that will contain a possibility of palatability for me is if we trade Nash to Orlando in exchange for J.J. Redick, Chris Duhon and two unprotected first round picks. There just isn’t any way that the Suns can get anywhere close to equal value for Nash because of his age, regardless of how well he is playing. And then Steve plays along as a double agent. He does his best to recruit Dwight Howard and they both come riding in to Phoenix for 2012-2013…much to the chagrin of our existing center Marcin Gortat. Is it just me, or does this seem like an actual possibility for Orlando for the chance to win a championship and incentivize Howard to re-sign? You know, minus the double-agent business and maybe one draft pick is top 3 protected just in case Howard does flee to LA, Dallas, Chicago or New York.

As for the free agent market, the best option that I consider a possibility is Eric Gordon (Sorry, I just don’t think Phoenix is landing Dwight Howard). If the Suns do not make any significant trades during the season and resign Steve Nash for two more seasons, they will be returning Nash, Jared Dudley, Marcin Gortat, Channing Frye, Josh Childress, Hakim Warrick and Markieff Morris (Grant Hill could still resign, but for me the jury is still out. He’s had a rough start to this season). Adding Gordon will fill a gaping hole in what looks like a decent rotation. Last season, Gordon was seventh among all wing players at shots attempted at the rim, showing that he is consistently driving the ball into the lane. He also had the fifteenth best free-throw rate (FTA/FGA) among all wing players last season, which was higher than Kobe Bryant, Monta Ellis and Rudy Gay, according to hoopdata.com. The Suns have been missing that type of attacking player since Amare Stoudemire signed with the Knicks.

However, he will not be cheap. There will be a lot of interest in him, and he is also restricted free agent, which means that New Orleans has the chance to match any offer the Suns can make. This adds another interesting wrinkle because David Stern is still currently controlling the franchise while looking for a buyer. As we learned this offseason, you never know what will happen when the NBA commissioner is your puppet-mast…I mean general manager.

If the Suns do decide to trade Steve Nash, they better have a good idea of what the future has in store, a la trading Stephon Marbury in 2004 clearing salary cap room to sign Steve Nash. I can see a similar scenario playing out here, but instead of signing Steve Nash, the Suns offer a max contract to Deron Williams. He is probably leaving New Jersey and will be looking for a max deal somewhere. Just like in 2004, there will be other, bigger names on the market (in 2004 Kobe Bryant toyed with the idea of signing with the LA Clippers). That could set up a perfect storm for the Suns to bring in another great point guard to add to their rich point guard history…you know, if Robert Sarver makes the wrong move and decides to trade the greatest Sun in franchise history.

First Week Woes

The first week of the 2011-2012 season has not been kind to the Phoenix Suns. They sport a lowly 1-3 record, despite the fact that three of the four games so far have been against teams the Suns would have run off the court three to four years ago. My have things changed in so short a time.

The win/loss record is not the only unfamiliar territory for this team. In six of the seven years since Steve Nash returned to the Suns, they have been ranked as one of the top two teams in offensive efficiency, and in the top five in possessions per game. In other words…the Suns were running, and the Suns were scoring.

Through the first week of the season, this team looks very different. So far, the Suns rank 25^th in offensive efficiency at a mere 94.9 points per 100 possessions, compared to their highest mark of 115.3 in 2009-10. Even without Amare Stoudemire last season they managed to put up an offensive efficiency of 109.5, good enough for 9^th in the NBA. So, what is so different about this year’s team versus last year’s squad?

As I mentioned in an earlier post, there a many potential factors that have played into the Suns’ slow start; age, lockout, no training camp. But statistically, there is another factor that makes this team look far different than any other version under the Nash Era; and that is pace.

Ever since Mike D’Antoni rolled out the “Seven Seconds or Less” offense in 2004, the Suns have finished in the top five in number of possessions per game in six out of seven years, and in the top ten every year. Currently the Suns are ranked 25^th in the NBA in pace according to hoopdata.com. They just aren’t pushing the ball up the court this year, and in my opinion, it’s hurting the team. Steve Nash-led teams have finished in the top ten in pace every year of his career. Even at age 36, last season, he was pushing the ball up the court, using his excellent court vision while the defense scrambled to get back and defend. Using Steve Nash in any other way just seems unnatural. It does not seem wise to try and drastically adjust the team’s style of play when the leader and identity of the franchise is still Steve Nash.

If this new style is part of the new defensive philosophy of new assistant coach, Elston Turner, then it might be time to really start thinking about trading Nash and Grant Hill and starting the rebuild from the ground up. If the front office continues to hold firm that Nash will not be traded under any circumstances, then at least for the fans’ sake, make the team watchable and let Steve Nash do what Steve Nash does best…and that’s push the basketball and let his team score a lot of points.