Free Agency

Its NBA free agency, everyone has an opinion, and that includes yours truly. Let’s jump right into this and break it down, starting with the Suns. I think the Suns are in trouble. The front office seems to be in shambles right now. Robert Sarver is a much bigger factor than we realized. Both general manager Steve Kerr and assistant GM David Griffin felt the need to resign, with rumors pointing to lowball contract offers from Sarver. Like I wrote earlier, Kerr’s resignation is just a harbinger for Stoudemire’s departure. I cannot fathom a situation in which Sarver is willing to give Amare the money and years that he wants. There has to be at least one team that is willing to give Amare the max. The Suns just have to hope that the current roster will be able to communally absorb Amare’s scoring and rebounding (yes, Amare did get SOME rebounds).

Now on to Channing Frye and Lou Amundsen. I think Frye will be back. He’ll opt out to see what his offers are, but I don’t think there will be a team that will really over spend on a tissue-soft, three-point shooting center. His stock is probably about as high as it will get, but he won’t find a better situation than Phoenix, maybe a little more money, but not an overall better situation. As for Lou, I think we can all agree that this year’s picks of Gani Lawal and Dwayne Collins guarantee that Lou has played his last game with the Suns. He was a great pickup and was a fan favorite, but he’s due for a pay raise.

One thing is for sure, and that is this summer could end up the craziest in NBA history, and at least one team will end up completely happy. Yup you guessed it. The team that signs LeBron James is going to be the overall winner in free agency regardless of what any other team does. Teams have been looking forward to this summer for nearly three years now.

It’s the $100 million dollar question. Where will LeBron go? If he’s smart, he’ll leave Cleveland. Let me explain: the current cast of LeBronettes is terrible. His supporting cast in Cleveland was FAR overrated. Think about it, his two best teammates at the outset of the season were Mo Williams, an undersized two guard who wouldn’t start on a third of NBA teams and a 380 pound Shaq, who is perhaps the most overrated big man in league history. Strong claims? Yes, but he’s never won anything without a “sidekick” who can take over a game in crunch time (Penny Hardaway in Orlando, Kobe in LA, Dwayne Wade in Miami, Steve Nash in Phoenix and LeBron in Cleveland). The Cavs did pickup Antawn Jamison, a talented player, but consistently disappears in big games, a la the Boston series. They have some other decent parts: Varejao, Delonte West, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but nothing extraordinary. This type of talent can be picked up any year in free agency.

LeBron wants to be a worldwide mogul. The best way to do this is to win. Take Kobe for example. He’s a much bigger international start than LeBron, and it’s not because he speaks Italian. It’s because of those five rings he’s earned. A bigger market, with a free-spending owner is going to give LeBron a much better shot at winning. Whether that’s in New York, Chicago, New Jersey, it doesn’t really matter because they can assemble a team just as good as Cleveland this year. It’s all about the organization as a whole, which includes ownership. That’s why I think this year’s class is going to break down like this:

LeBron goes to….DALLAS!!!!!!!
Yup, LeBron signs with Dallas; great organization with great ownership. The only problem is, as currently constituted the team might not be quite as flashy as LeBron wants. But, rumors are circulating that the infamous Worldwide Wes is trying to broker a deal that would bring Chris Paul to a LeBron suitor. That’s why I came up with this doozy via the ESPN NBA Trade Machine. Chris Paul goes to Dallas, Jason Kidd goes to Miami and a hoard of young, talented players go to New Orleans. Win, win, win. Well, not as much for New Orleans, but still feasible. Miami also becomes a more attractive spot for free agents including LeBron with Kidd on board, but Dallas would still end up as LeBron’s choice.

With LeBron going to Dallas, that leaves New York searching for a Plan B. I don’t think anything will be able to console Knicks fans if they don’t get LeBron, but a decent consolation prize will be Amare Stoudemire and Joe Johnson reuniting with old coach Mike D’Antoni. They have the cap room to overpay both of these guys and possibly have room to make a real basketball team.

Unfortunately for Miami, they don’t pick up anyone else after the Jason Kidd trade, but do keep Wade around and still end up with a much more competitive team with the stellar back court of Wade and Kidd.

Miami’s misfortunes are Chicago’s gains as Chris Bosh signs with Chicago. The addition of Bosh instantly makes Chicago a threat in the East. They are, however, one talented swing player away from becoming the 2008 Boston Celtics; because of new head coach Tom Thibodeau, former assistant coach of said 2008 Celtics team.

Now we come full circle in this post because Dallas doesn’t have the cap space to keep Dirk Nowitzki. Yup, you guessed it. Nowitzki reunites with former teammate and buddy Steve Nash and signs with the Phoenix Suns! And that is how the summer of 2010 will turn out.