The Shaq

(Editor's note: I came across this piece I wrote just after Shaq retired, but never posted it it. Just think of this as free bonus blog.)

Shaquille O’Neal announced his retirement Wednesday. He was for all intents and purposes the most dominant center in my lifetime. Shaq came into the league as the number one overall pick in the 1992 NBA draft to the Orlando Magic and didn’t disappoint (just check out some Youtube videos of Shaq’s time with the Magic). Within two years, he had led the Magic, with the help of Penny Hardaway, to the NBA Finals where he lost to another all-time great center, Hakeem Olajuwon and the Houston Rockets. Shaq finished his career ranked in the top 15 in points (fifth), blocks (seventh), rebounds (twelfth), and field goal percentage (second), which, of course, are the most important statistics when categorizing centers in the NBA. When compared to all centers Shaq ranked third in points, seventh in blocks, tenth in rebounds and second in field goal percentage. Shaq was one of the best players in NBA history. Personally I have him as the third best center of all-time behind, Wilt Chamberlain and Kareem Abdul-jabbar and just in front of Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson and Bill Russell. I know that some people will want to crucify me for putting Bill Russell so low on this list, but I just don’t see how playing with a team full of Hall of Fame players to win eleven championships should make Russell a better player than Shaq. Also, Russell was a bad free throw shooter, which is Shaq-haters biggest knock against him, and he also was not a good scorer, averaging only 15 points and shooting .440 from the field. That’s not impressive. Hence Shaq’s higher placement on the all-time list.

Now, despite all of this, Shaq’s career was still somewhat of a disappointment. His raw size and athleticism may never be duplicated in the NBA. When he came into the league he measured 7’1” and 303 pounds with a 7’7” wingspan and an incredible 36” vertical leap. Shaq showcased that wonderful talent in his first ten years in the league, reaching his apex in 2000 when he was voted Most Valuable Player and winning three championships with the Lakers and one with the Heat. Honestly, it should have been more, especially considering the talent that played alongside of him.

Shaq never learned to take care of his body. After his MVP season in 2000, Shaq only averaged nearly 20 games missed every season. Jared Dudley gave a little insight into Shaq’s work disciplinary habits via twitter when he said that he lost wait after Shaq left because he stopped going to eat chicken and waffles before plane rides. In another tweet Dudley reminisces about the times where Shaq would make the rest of his teammates rehearse their starting lineup introductions, which needed to be perfect, according to Shaq. His increasing size contributed to foot and toe problems. Shaq also never put in the time to master his free throw shooting. He was a career 52.7% free throw shooter. Shaq claimed that he made them when they mattered most, which isn’t really true since his average dropped to 50.4% during his career in the playoffs. With work, Shaq could have been inarguably the most dominant force the game of basketball has ever seen, a true unstoppable player.

The what-could-have-beens of Shaq’s career may not be any more apparent than they are to Suns fans. Shaq was the first major step in the downfall of the “seven seconds or less” Suns. The Suns traded for Shaq in February of 2008 in part to shore up their defense against Tim Duncan and the Spurs for the playoffs, but also to rid the locker room of Shawn Marion’s whiny, woebegone attitude. When the trade happened the Suns were sitting at first place in the Western Conference. After they acquired Shaq they fell to the sixth seed in the Western Conference and were matched up against their arch nemesis, the San Antonio Spurs. Suffice it to say, the trade did not bear the intended fruits of a playoff win against the Spurs. The next year Shaq gave an inspired effort by playing in 75 games and averaging 17.8 points while making the All-Star Game which was held in Phoenix. Unfortunately, the highlight of his time in Phoenix was when he was introduced to the crowd at the All-Star game and danced with the Jabbawockeez.

Even as the first step in a painful process that saw the Suns go from championship contenders to lottery team, Shaq still cannot be blamed for what happened. He was brought in to do a job, and the Suns should have known what they were getting when he came over from Miami: an aging star who never showed the Steve Nash-like discipline it took to keep his body at an elite level. It’s no wonder that Shaq and Nash butted heads on more than just on-court philosophy. It’s just too bad for Suns fans that we only got to see the Shaq in the beginning of his twilight years, because an in-shape, motivated Shaq was truly one of the most dominating players to ever play the game.

Season Preview

The Suns will finally tipoff the season tonight against the New Orleans Hornets. The starting lineup will be full of familiar faces as this is the first time the Suns’ opening day starting lineup is the same as the previous season’s end of season starting lineup since Jeff Hornacek and Kurt Rambis were in purple and orange 21 years ago. Unfortunately for the Suns, that cohesiveness may not be a good thing. The Suns missed the playoffs last season finishing in 10th place in the Western Conference and negative efficiency differential at -0.4 (difference between offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency per 100 possessions) finishing 16th in the NBA in that category.

Without any significant improvements and an additional year on the legs and backs of Grant Hill and Steve Nash as well as a lockout-condensed 66 game schedule, this year’s team does not appear to have much hope for a return to glory. Most prognosticators have the Suns finishing toward the bottom of the Western Conference. John Hollinger’s analysis has the Suns finishing 14th in the West with a 24-42 record. Considering the fact that Hollinger uses analytics to make his predictions and his Vegas-beating history, he has some credibility toward his predictions.

ESPN’s Bill Simmons, who has significantly less credibility, but is entertaining to listen to nonetheless has a much nicer prediction of 33-33. Most likely this will still not be good enough to make the playoffs, but it does make for a rosier season and at least something to play for.

Using David Berri’s Wins Produced stat, I calculated my own quick predictions. Unfortunately, this also has the Suns finishing with a poor record at 21-45, preparing for the lottery. To find these numbers, I used last season’s WP48 with my own quick estimation of minutes played to come up with each person’s contribution of wins. Of course, we do not have a last season for Markieff Morris, so I used a rough estimate based on previous power forwards’ rookie seasons to come up with about one win attributed to Morris. Now, if Morris turns into a rookie of the year candidate and fulfills the Suns’ wildest dreams and therefore takes more minutes from Frye, I predict he adds an additional six wins for a 27-39 finish. And again, the Suns will still finish in the lottery.

Player WP48 Min. Wins Produced
Steve Nash 0.244 2046 10.401
Jared Dudley 0.173 1848 6.661
Grant Hill 0.102 1914 4.067
Channing Frye 0.017 2046 0.725
Marcin Gortat 0.176 1980 7.260
Shannon Brown 0.056 1320 1.540
Markieff Morris 0.037 1188 0.916
Robin Lopez -0.031 1056 -0.682
Josh Childress 0.202 660 2.778
Ronnie Price -0.094 1254 -2.456
Hakim Warrick 0.092 198 0.380
Seb. Telfair -0.037 132 -0.102
Garret Siler -0.014 198 -0.058


The Suns are still feeling the departure of Amare Stoudemire. They do not have a go-to scorer that can score on isolation plays and get to the free throw line. They went into last season hoping Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu could fill that role but had to part with Richardson in order to dump the Turkoglu disaster. After that, Vince Carter also could not live up to expectations of a go-to scorer and the Suns were left without someone who could score when the offense went stagnant.

As far as the additions are concerned, both Sebastian Telfair and Ronnie Price are a step down from Aaron Brooks who is stuck in China after signing a contract a week before the lockout ended. And Shannon Brown, while talented, has not shown the ability to create his own shot and will not give the Suns the consistent firepower that they need.

As it is now, the lockout-shortened season may be one of the bright spots on the year, as it will mean less misery for a bottom-feeding team than in a normal 82-game season. Steve Nash will still be Steve Nash and will be the main reason why the Suns will be competitive in many of their games, but overall will just come up short too many times. This season will provide a good opportunity to get better through a deep draft in 2012. If it were up to me I would try to keep Nash as healthy as possible through this season by significantly reducing his minutes on back to backs and stretches with three games in four nights. This will keep the Suns competitive for a high lottery pick as well as a big-time free agent next summer. Showing that loyalty to Nash can hopefully bring him back with a retooled roster in 2012 and one last run or two to the promised land.